The Indian rupee slipped to an all-time low against the US dollar in early trade on Thursday, weighed down by broad weakness in Asian currencies and renewed strength in the greenback. The domestic unit touched the 92.00 mark and opened at 91.99 per dollar, compared to its previous close of 91.78.
The decline came as the US dollar recovered from multi-year lows after the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged. US Treasury yields moved higher after the Fed noted that inflation remains elevated while the labour market continues to show signs of stabilisation.
Persistent foreign capital outflows, rising geopolitical uncertainties and heightened global risk aversion continued to pressure emerging market currencies, pushing the rupee to a record low. Market participants also remained cautious amid sustained selling by foreign institutional investors.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 0.29 per cent lower at 96.16. Commenting on currency levels, Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, said the 92 mark is a crucial level for the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India may step in if volatility persists.
On the domestic front, attention is also focused on policy developments, with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman scheduled to table the Economic Survey 2025–26 in Parliament later today, ahead of the Union Budget on February 1.
Equity markets mirrored the weak sentiment, with benchmark indices trading lower amid muted global cues. The Sensex fell 413.40 points, or 0.50 per cent, to 81,931.28, while the Nifty 50 declined 122.35 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 25,220.40.
Adding to the pressure on the rupee was a rise in crude oil prices. Brent crude climbed 1.32 per cent to $69.30 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 1.38 per cent to $64.08.
Rupee Outlook
Amit Pabari, Managing Director at CR Forex Advisors, said steady capital outflows have kept demand for dollars elevated. He noted that a sustained move above 92.00 could open the way toward the 92.20–92.50 range, although RBI intervention and a broadly softer dollar environment may limit further downside and pull the pair back toward 91.00–91.20.
Jigar Trivedi added that near-term support for the rupee is seen around 91.70, while beyond the record 92 level, the next resistance lies at 92.20.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, observed that the USD/INR pair continues to form higher highs and higher lows, supported by policy divergence, ongoing foreign portfolio outflows and dollar-side macroeconomic stress.
“As long as USD/INR sustains above the 91.90–92.10 zone, the positive bias remains intact, with gradual upside potential toward 92.50 and above in the coming weeks,” he said.