India could record around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an unusually strong El Niño drives temperatures higher across large parts of the world, according to a new analysis by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The study estimates that the current El Niño could contribute to about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally during the first nine months of the event, from June 2026 to February 2027. For the September-February period alone, researchers project around 239,000 additional deaths worldwide.
The projections are based on the estimated relationship between temperature and mortality across thousands of regions, with researchers comparing expected conditions with the 1996-2025 average. The analysis accounts for differences in local climate, vulnerability and the ability of populations to adapt to heat.
Global temperatures could rise 1.2°C above normal
Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could remain around 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal during the coming months. The additional warming could result in approximately 44% more extremely hot days than would typically be expected.
The researchers said the temperatures associated with this El Niño could resemble conditions that climate change is otherwise expected to produce roughly two decades from now.
The World Meteorological Organization has separately said El Niño is firmly established and is expected to strengthen further, with an almost 100% probability of persisting through February 2027. The WMO has warned that the event could significantly alter rainfall and temperature patterns and increase the risks of extreme heat, drought and flooding.
India among countries facing highest projected toll
India is projected to have the fourth-highest number of additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, according to the Climate Impact Lab analysis.
Nigeria is projected to record around 31,400 additional heat-related deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,500. India follows with 15,800, while Brazil is projected to record around 13,300 additional deaths.
Across Africa’s Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad, the study estimates around 66,800 additional deaths during the six-month period. In Southeast Asia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are collectively projected to see around 19,400 additional heat-related deaths.
Heat impact could extend beyond February
The study’s estimates focus on deaths associated with additional heat and do not include potential fatalities arising indirectly from other El Niño-related effects such as drought, flooding, wildfires and disruptions to food supplies.
The researchers have also stressed that the projections are intended to identify areas where early interventions could reduce the impact of extreme heat. Measures such as heat warnings, cooling facilities and protections for people working outdoors could help vulnerable communities prepare for periods of unusually high temperatures.
With El Niño expected to remain influential into 2027, the researchers said the heat-related risks could continue beyond the current September-February projection window.