The threat of extreme weather is rising as a powerful El Niño continues to intensify, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate phenomenon could reach very strong levels by the end of 2026.
The warming event is expected to remain in place into early 2027, potentially triggering major changes in global weather patterns. Depending on the region, this could mean more intense heat, prolonged drought or episodes of heavy rain and flooding.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also raised concerns over the worsening climate risks, saying the world is entering an “extreme weather” danger zone as temperatures in the oceans continue to climb.
El Niño develops when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than usual. Current measurements suggest that the warming has accelerated significantly in recent weeks.
The Niño 3.4 index, a widely used indicator for monitoring El Niño, was about 2°C above average in July. Weekly measurements later showed temperatures between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above normal.
The unusual warmth is not limited to the surface. Water temperatures several metres below the surface in parts of the tropical Pacific were more than 8°C above average during July and early August. Scientists say this accumulated subsurface heat could contribute to further strengthening of the event.
The WMO estimates there is an almost 100% probability that El Niño will continue through February 2027. Its strongest phase is currently expected towards the end of this year.
A strong El Niño can have far-reaching consequences because it affects atmospheric circulation and changes where heat and rainfall are concentrated around the world. Some regions may experience severe dryness, increasing the threat of wildfires and water shortages, while others could face intense rainfall and flooding.
Temperatures are also expected to remain above average across large parts of the world’s land areas over the coming months.
India could be among the countries closely watching the development. El Niño has traditionally been associated with weaker or irregular southwest monsoon rainfall, creating potential concerns for agriculture and water resources. The India Meteorological Department has indicated that the phenomenon may strengthen further during October-December.
The country has already experienced a considerable rainfall deficit in August, while September rainfall is expected to remain below normal.
However, experts caution against assuming that El Niño will affect every region in the same way. Its consequences depend on the time of year, location and interaction with other ocean and atmospheric conditions, including those in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon and there is no established evidence that human-induced climate change is making these events more frequent or powerful.
At the same time, a warmer planet can make some of the associated impacts more severe. Higher background temperatures can intensify heatwaves, while warmer air and oceans can contribute to heavier rainfall in some situations.
The last major El Niño, which occurred in 2023-24, coincided with exceptionally high global temperatures. The period also preceded 2024 being recorded as the warmest year on record.
With another strong event developing, meteorological agencies are focusing on early warnings and preparedness. The WMO is working with national weather and hydrological services to improve forecasts and help governments respond to emerging risks.
Seasonal climate information can allow farmers, health authorities, water managers, governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare before extreme conditions arrive.
As El Niño is projected to strengthen further in the months ahead, authorities are being urged to use the available forecasts and take preventive measures rather than wait for extreme weather events to occur.