The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast light rainfall or thundershowers in parts of South Gujarat and Saurashtra on October 29 and 30, according to its bulletin issued on October 27.Isolated rainfall is likely in Navsari and Valsad districts, along with Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman, on both days. In Saurashtra, Amreli and Bhavnagar districts may also receive light rain or thundershowers on October 30.
The IMD has predicted dry weather across Gujarat, including Saurashtra-Kutch, Diu, Daman and Dadra and Nagar Haveli, on October 28. Dry conditions are expected to continue across the state and the Union Territories from October 31 to November 3. No weather warnings have been issued for the next seven days.
Why Is Rain Possible in Gujarat in Late October?
According to the IMD’s synoptic observations, a cyclonic circulation persists over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas at an altitude of around 1.5 km above mean sea level. Such a system can influence local atmospheric conditions and support cloud formation and rainfall when sufficient moisture is available.
The bulletin also mentions a Western Disturbance persisting as a trough in the middle and upper tropospheric westerlies, with its axis extending approximately along 73°E longitude, north of 28°N latitude. Northeasterly to easterly winds are prevailing over the region at lower levels.
These atmospheric conditions provide the meteorological context for the forecast. However, the observations alone do not establish that either system is directly responsible for the expected rainfall in Gujarat.
Temperatures Likely to Drop by 2–3°C
The IMD has forecast no significant change in maximum temperatures across Gujarat over the next 48 hours, followed by a gradual fall of 2–3°C. Minimum temperatures are likely to remain largely unchanged over the next seven days.
In Ahmedabad and its surrounding areas, mainly clear skies are expected until the morning of October 28. The maximum temperature is likely to reach around 36°C, while the minimum temperature is forecast to be approximately 22°C.