After a relatively subdued spell of rainfall, Gujarat is once again set to witness increased monsoon activity, with several weather systems expected to bring heavy to very heavy rain across parts of the state between September 12 and 15. The India Meteorological Department has forecast intense showers in South Gujarat, Central Gujarat and parts of Saurashtra, with red, orange and yellow alerts issued for several districts.
The weather department has warned of particularly heavy rainfall on September 12, with South Gujarat likely to receive intense showers. An orange alert has been issued for Dang, Navsari and Valsad, while an yellow alert is in place for Anand, Vadodara, Chhota Udepur, Narmada, Bharuch, Surat and Tapi.
The situation is expected to intensify on September 13, with alerts issued across 20 districts. A red alert has been issued for Navsari and Valsad, indicating the possibility of very heavy rainfall. An orange alert covers Amreli, Bhavnagar, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi and Dang. Meanwhile, an yellow alert has been issued for Ahmedabad, Porbandar, Rajkot, Botad, Junagadh, Gir Somnath, Anand, Vadodara, Narmada, Panchmahal, Dahod and Chhota Udepur.
For September 14, the IMD has issued an orange alert for Navsari, Valsad, Porbandar, Junagadh and Gir Somnath. A yellow alert has been issued for Kutch, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Morbi, Rajkot, Surendranagar, Botad, Bhavnagar, Amreli, Bharuch, Surat, Tapi and Dang.
Rain activity is likely to continue into September 15, although the warning is less intense. A yellow alert has been issued for Jamnagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagadh and Gir Somnath districts, where heavy rainfall is expected.
Four weather systems driving rainfall
The renewed spell of rain is being attributed to the simultaneous influence of multiple atmospheric systems.
A low-pressure area that had formed over the northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, along with the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coast, has moved inland and was located over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining areas at 8.30 am on September 12. The associated cyclonic circulation extends up to around 7.6 km above sea level and is tilted towards the southwest with height. The system is expected to move west-northwestwards across south Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha during the next 24 hours.
The monsoon trough at mean sea level is extending from Jaisalmer through Rajgarh, Betul, south Chhattisgarh and the adjoining low-pressure area towards Gopalpur and the east-central Bay of Bengal. The trough extends up to around 1.5 km above sea level.
At the same time, a Western Disturbance is active in the form of a cyclonic circulation extending between 3.1 km and 4.5 km above sea level over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu.
The prevailing westerly to southwesterly winds at lower levels are also contributing to the moisture flow and supporting increased rainfall activity across Gujarat.