Ahmedabad may face a chilly winter this year, with night temperatures expected to drop below 10°C in the second half of December, according to early analyses from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Cooling Trends and Data
The IMD’s Climate of Ahmedabad report, based on 2010–2019 data, shows the city’s average winter minimum hovered between 13°C and 15°C, about 2–3°C lower than the earlier 1971–2010 period, indicating a gradual cooling trend over the last decade.
The last three winters were mixed: 2022 and 2023 had cold mornings around 10°C, while 2024 was relatively mild. This year, experts predict a return to colder conditions, driven by low post-monsoon rainfall and reduced humidity, allowing heat to escape quickly after sunset.
Why This Winter Will Be Colder
According to IMD climatologists, several factors are contributing to the anticipated chill:
The Pacific Ocean is transitioning from a weak El Niño to a neutral phase, historically associated with cooler, drier winters in north and central India.
Western disturbances are less active, meaning clear skies and faster nighttime cooling.
Persistent northeasterly winds from Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh bring dry air, accelerating temperature drops.
Dry soil due to limited rainfall after September loses heat quickly after sunset, further reducing minimum temperatures.
Early Signs of Chill
Even before mid-October, Ahmedabad has felt a slight nip in the air, prompting early purchases of sweaters and blankets at markets like Law Garden and Ratanpol.
Between 2010 and 2019, Ahmedabad averaged one cold wave day in January and 0.6 in December—defined as nights 5°C or more below normal. This season, such events could occur multiple times if the dry, cloudless pattern continues.
One of the Coldest Winters in Years?
Local climatologists suggest that minimum temperatures could dip below 10°C in late December, making winter 2025–26 potentially the coldest Ahmedabad has seen in five years, reminiscent of the chill last experienced around 2011.
Residents are advised to prepare for the cold and stay updated with official forecasts expected later this month.