India has seen a slight increase in Covid-19 cases across nine states over the past week, mirroring a similar trend in Southeast Asia. However, experts stress that the case numbers remain low, with no concerning patterns or new variants identified so far.
Following a surge in cases in Singapore and Hong Kong, India has also started witnessing a rise in infections, particularly in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Mumbai, Chennai, and Ahmedabad. Despite the uptick, the overall count remains modest compared to previous waves, and health authorities are closely monitoring the situation.
Specialists suggest that the reported rise may not accurately reflect the actual number of infections, as many individuals with respiratory symptoms are not undergoing Covid testing. Nevertheless, there is no sign of the virus mutating to become more dangerous. Experts also highlight that “zero” active case reports in several states may indicate inadequate testing rather than a real absence of infections.
The recent increase in cases in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Thailand has been attributed to descendants of the Omicron variant that circulated globally during 2021–2022. Microbiologists tracking the virus’s changes believe significant shifts in severity or transmission are unlikely unless the virus undergoes major evolution.
“The variant in Hong Kong is NB.1.8.1, which is a combination of XDV and JN.1. XDV has evolved from XBB, and JN.1 has evolved from BA.2,” Rajesh Karyakarte, professor and head of microbiology at BJ Medical College, Pune, was quoted as saying by Telegraph.
“All are derivatives of omicron variants such as XBB or JN.1 that have widely circulated in India in the past. We don’t expect these derivatives to cause any major shift in hospitalisation patterns. Our high rates of vaccination and natural infections have contributed to the immunity.”
Karyakarte, who is part of a national network monitoring Covid genomic changes, noted that genomic surveillance has decreased as infections became milder and fewer people tested. However, the network has continued sewage surveillance, which could serve as an early alert for potential outbreaks.
“Sewage surveillance continued for months even after the end of the pandemic — we saw some humps associated with mild localised increases in infections in some places, but no sharp spikes,” said Souvik Mukherjee, a scientist at the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, to Telegraph.
The increase in cases has not been uniform. Kerala saw the highest jump in active cases, from 26 on May 12 to 95 on May 19. Maharashtra followed, with a rise from 12 to 56, and Tamil Nadu from 32 to 66 during the same time.
“Waning immunity, inconsistent (vaccine) booster uptake, and a demand for testing contribute to higher detection rates and infection counts,” Arup Halder, consultant pulmonologist at CMRI Hospital, Calcutta, told Telegraph.