The annual southwest monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala on May 31, initiating the crucial four-month rainfall period pivotal for India’s agricultural economy.
“This year, the southwest monsoon is likely to set over Kerala on May 31 with a model error of four days,” the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday.
Director general of the IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, said that this timing aligns closely with the normal onset date for the monsoon over Kerala, which usually occurs around June 1. “This is not early. It’s near normal date as the normal date for onset of monsoon over Kerala is June 1,” Mohapatra said.
Last month, the IMD had predicted above-normal rainfall for the June to September Southwest Monsoon season. June and July months are particularly significant for agriculture, as this period marks the primary phase for sowing the kharif crop.
Two key factors contributed to the likelihood of abundant rainfall which included a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), indicating cooler than usual temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean compared to the western region. This facilitates rainfall across several southern Indian states. Currently, the IOD status is ‘neutral’ but is expected to transition to a positive phase by August.
The other reason highlighted was a diminished snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia. Mohapatra explained that historically, there has been an “inverse relationship” between the extent of snow cover in these regions and the intensity of the monsoon.